First, it assumes that a taxpayer knows in advance if something is a short term or long term investment.Reasonable stock-market investing focus' on long-term results. If you want to take your money out in 1, 3, 5 years, the stock market is not a good place for you. Look at the past 5 years as an example of that: the DJIA has just broken even. The 10-year time-frame is critical in the stock-market. There has never been a 10-year period in which stocks haven't outperformed every other major investment vehicle, and only one 10-year period in which they declined (during the Great Depression). That's a pretty good indicator of the future. Obviously, nothing is for certain.
True, there are many times when stocks and stock mutual funds will rise extremely rarpidly over a very short period of time, making selling them reasonable. I do not agree that "event-driven investing" is a credible alternative approach to holding onto stocks for long periods of time, since I don't see how that's different than market-timing. Obviously, it may be reasonable to have some rules when investing in individual stocks, such as to sell if they decline by 20% or whatever the individual sets; to sell incrementally when enormous profits are realized over short time-frames, so as to lock those profits in; and to sell when the stock's price reaches an unrealistic price.
One may not know whether individual stocks -- or even mutual funds -- will reach a point where they should be sold by reasonable people in the short-term or long-term. However, overall, investing in the stock-market and stock mutual funds is long-term.
Second, if you buy something and it rises rapidly, you may have good reasons to sell. There are no consequences in an IRA or Roth for selling with less than a one year hold.This is true. I would not say that just because something rises rapidly, however, you should sell. You may want to lock in some of the profit and sell off some of your stake in it. However, the time to sell is when the stock is no-longer something you would have invested in in the first place. Basically, the time to sell is when the answer to "Would I buy this stock if I was looking at it fresh today?" is no.
Third, you say your should "invest short term when you need the money short term". This seems to confuse two subtle issues: the length a specific investment is held and the period of time when you are actively investing.Different investments are very likely to produce positive results over different time-frames. The point I was trying to make is that if you're saving to buy a house in 5 years, you should not invest in something (like the stock-market) that has a significant possibility of going down in 5 years. If you are investing for a house in 5 years (let's say you want to buy it up-front), you should ask yourself a couple of questions. (1) How much money can you put aside each year for that purpose? (2) How expensive is the house you're planning on? (3) What is the difference between the summation of my yearly investing for a house and the cost of my house, compensated for inflation?
From this, you can figure out how much your money needs to grow to meet your objectives. Once you know that, you need to find an investment that is very likely to meet that growth-target over 5 years (e.g., over 5-year period, has almost always showed enough growth for your required needs). If you can't find an investment that has almost always met your required growth over 5 years, then you are being unrealistic (e.g., if you need 17% per year to meet your 5-yr objective). You either need to find a way to put aside more money each year, or find ways to knock down the price of your house, or both.
I do not believe that anyone should have a lot of confidence that their view of the future has a high probability, especially with regard to specific investments. Sorting investments by accounts based upon your predictions will often be wrong. More wrong over long time periods.I'm talking with regard to general investments. Stocks and mutual funds are not a reliable 5-year investment, especially if there's a bear-market. The 10-year time-frame is critical. Short/medium-term bonds, however, may be a reliable 5-year investment. In any event, outside of emerging-market bonds, bonds will not produce the kinds of returns that stocks produce over 10-years. Thus, it makes sense to put your aggressive stock investments and mutual funds, into tax-sheltered accounts, where they will benefit the most from tax-deferred growth. While the stock-market requires a longer time-frame (10yrs) to be a reliable investment than the bond-market, it has always produced greater returns than the bond-market over 10yrs.
People investing in stocks are looking for high rates of returns, 8%, 10%, or better. Tax-sheltered plans, like 401/403/Roth, will provide the most benefit to these kinds of investments in terms of growth.
You also said: "Because the earnings in RothIRA's are tax-exempt, your most aggressive investments should be in your RothIRAs (if they lose money before the end of the year, you can always turn them into traditional IRAs so you don't get stuck paying taxes on $3000 contributed that's now only worth $2000). You can then -- at the soonest possible time by IRS regulations -- convert the Traditional IRA back to a RothIRA, still be able to contribute $3k that year."
Perhaps the accountants can evaluate to what extent your proposal is legal. I can not recommend this approach on a number of practical grounds. You can't convert prior year Roth assets back and forth. For most folks, prior year assets should be greater than the current contribution (if any), so this statement is limited in scope. In a normal investing environment, it is rare to see a stock drop 50% in a year. If your picks are doing this, you have more fundamental problems than your taxes. Not everyone can qualify for a Roth every year. It is an administrative mess. I don't think anyone should make investments using this concept as a backstop.This approach is indeed legal. You can convert back and forth from Roth IRA's to traditional IRA's. Even more aggressive conversion strategies (e.g., individually converting each mutual funds) have been proposed. See
Roth IRA Conversions -- An Aggressive Strategy. Your assumption that for most people, the assets should be greater, is very questionable. If one is heavily invested in the stock market, that is very possible one could lose money, especially in a bear-market. In any situation where your RothIRA value declines over a year, it is valuable to convert it to a traditional and then reconvert asap to a Roth.
The best strategy is to modularize conversions, as the article I mention suggests. Individual investments within a RothIRA that decline over a year should be converted to a traditional IRA, then reconverted back the next year asap by law. This allows one to reap maximum tax-benefits. Of course, this is only possible if you qualify for a Roth IRA. It's only an administrative mess if you keep sloppy records and don't understand what you're doing. Otherwise, though complicated, it is pretty clear.
Blanket recommendations about investing often miss the mark.My point was not that I-bonds are the best investment for everyone's needs, but that I-bonds are a superior alternative to money-market's, CD's, and other ultra-short-term investments that are being crucified by inflation at the moment. If you want a zero-risk investment (in terms of not losing money to inflation) I-bonds are the best investment at the moment, so far as I can see.
I-bonds are hardly zero risk. You run a long term risk of your assets not providing enough return to reach your goals.I-bonds are not necessarily long-term. They can be redeemed after 1-year, albeit a 3mo interest penalty up to the 5th year. However, this becomes increasingly insignificant as 5-years approaches, and they would still be vastly outperforming CDs and money-markets in the current environment, and many other environments. I-bonds are, at the moment, a superior alternative to CDs and money-markets (for money that you need in less than one year, you should put it in a money-market...though at less than 1%, the returns are barely better than a savings account). Furthermore, CDs and money-markets also run the risk of not reaching your goals, so there is no reason to invest in them, when they have inferior returns to I-bonds.