If you are age 65 and convert to a Roth IRA, and you live another 20 years, and you then leave it to or in trust for the benefit of a grandchild age 20, with a 61.9 year life expectancy, it will be about 82 years until all of the assets of the IRA are distributed. The income tax law has changed many times since it began in 1913, and it will likely change many more times over the next 82 years. The rates were as high as 91% as recently as 1964, and as low as 28% as recently as 1990. No doubt over the next 82 years there will be years when the rates are higher and years when the rates are lower.
The difficulty of a VAT is that, even if you give a credit to the lowest income people, it is hard to raise sufficient revenue from the highest income people.
Of course, in most countries, they have a VAT in addition to an income tax at rates higher than ours (and things such as medical care are paid for out of tax revenue).
Since no one can predict the future of the tax law over a long period of time, I suggest that people take advantage of the opportunities based upon the current tax law and what they reasonably expect the tax law to be in the relatively near future.
In most cases, it would take a very substantial decrease in income tax rates in order to offset the benefits of converting to a Roth IRA. While such a change is possible, I don't see any reason to bet on it.
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Bruce Steiner, attorney
(212) 986-6000 (NY office)
(201) 862-1080 (NJ office)
also admitted in FL