nonqualified deferred comp plans that don't pay out

[Guest rpreston]

any ideas as to where one could obtain some probabilities or statistics as to how many nonqualified deferred comp plans have not paid out because of bankruptcy, mergers, or change of heart management? I've got some litigation that requires a discount be applied to a nonqualified deferred comp plan as to probability of payout based on the participant's age

robert preston

[MGB]

I don't think that probability should be based on others' experience. It should be based on the probability of that particular company meeting the obligation. That doesn't sound like something that is easy to decide on though. No two people would agree on that calcualtion. Perhaps a review of their credit ratings on corporate bonds are to see what the market sees as the risk of default is would be a starting point.

[david rigby]

Perhaps I misunderstand the question.

Are you referring to a discount for the probability that the company will go bankrupt or a probability that the employee will survive (and remain employed) until payment age? (or both?)

[Guest rpreston]

I'm interested in the probability the company will be around to pay the deferred comp, and will pay it - not concerned with the life expectancy of the participant

the suggestion about bond ratings is a good one - a valid starting point