Tom Poje Posted September 30, 2004 Posted September 30, 2004 I see the number of posts at the time I write this is 99,265. Any guesses what day the magic 100,000 will be reached? I am sure that is some actuary out there who knows, e.g. "what day do you want it to be" and obviously such individually would probably post enough on that day just to make it happen. therefore, maybe this useless and nonsensical contest shouldn't be open to them.
Belgarath Posted September 30, 2004 Posted September 30, 2004 October 15. And I confidently predict that some actuary will accurately predict the date once it has already happened. (That's for you, John)
JanetM Posted September 30, 2004 Posted September 30, 2004 Am not an actuary ( CPA, MBA which some may say is worse) but will chime in anyway. I will guess the magical day will be 10/11. Columbus Day it will be. JanetM CPA, MBA
david rigby Posted September 30, 2004 Posted September 30, 2004 Another occasion for us to acknowledge and appreciate our intrepid webmaster. I'm a retirement actuary. Nothing about my comments is intended or should be construed as investment, tax, legal or accounting advice. Occasionally, but not all the time, it might be reasonable to interpret my comments as actuarial or consulting advice.
R. Butler Posted September 30, 2004 Posted September 30, 2004 Is there a prize for guessing right? October 7th. If it doesn't go over before then I may just just continuosly post until the 100,000 mark is reached on 10/07.
oriecat Posted September 30, 2004 Posted September 30, 2004 I say tomorrow. This is like the Price is Right and it's better to be under, than over, right?
Lame Duck Posted September 30, 2004 Posted September 30, 2004 That would leave 735 posts remaining to reach the magic number. Without knowing the average number of posts per day, I will guess that it is somewhere around 150. This means we should reach 100,000 posts on October 6th. An actuary could probably calculate the exact minute and who the poster will be. for the 100,000 poster, I submit Blinky.
Tom Poje Posted September 30, 2004 Author Posted September 30, 2004 I'll go along with Belgarath - Oct 15 is as good a date for a deadline as you can get. very appropriate. I'll go for 10:15 as well.
WDIK Posted September 30, 2004 Posted September 30, 2004 Friday October 8th, unless R. Butler implements his scheme. ...but then again, What Do I Know?
R. Butler Posted September 30, 2004 Posted September 30, 2004 I'll go along with Belgarath -Oct 15 is as good a date for a deadline as you can get. very appropriate. I'll go for 10:15 as well. But as WDIK noticed, I won't let it go beyond 10/07. As a matter of fact I just may do every one of the posts in this thread. It will be a countdown to 100,000. Kind of like Time Square on New Years Eve, only not.
jevd Posted September 30, 2004 Posted September 30, 2004 # of posts til 100K = 653/82(# of posts today since original post)= 7.963 days + 2 no business days = Oct 10 about 3:00 P. M. and I'm not an actuary. make that Oct 12 due to 4 week end days. oops. I said I wasn't an actuary> JEVD Making the complex understandable.
JanetM Posted September 30, 2004 Posted September 30, 2004 I will still vote for 10/11 - on columbus day Maybe R Butler will stay up all night posting each thread with a "yes, I agree totally" message and we will be there by tomorrow. JanetM CPA, MBA
R. Butler Posted October 1, 2004 Posted October 1, 2004 I will still vote for 10/11 - on columbus dayMaybe R Butler will stay up all night posting each thread with a "yes, I agree totally" message and we will be there by tomorrow. Yes I totally agree
R. Butler Posted October 1, 2004 Posted October 1, 2004 I will still vote for 10/11 - on columbus dayMaybe R Butler will stay up all night posting each thread with a "yes, I agree totally" message and we will be there by tomorrow. Yes I totally agree. Oops I'm sorry its not 10/07 yet. You'll have to forgive me, I stayed up late watching my guy get his tail whipped in a debate last night.
Guest CitationSquirrel Posted October 1, 2004 Posted October 1, 2004 I vote for October 9th. I figure R. Butler's computer will crash during his attempt to "stuff the ballot box." What a sad commentary though ... the big moment will happen on the weekend. We should be relaxing, spending time with our families, taking our minds off work ... but NO ... we are busy posting to BenefitsLink ... how sad.
JanetM Posted October 4, 2004 Posted October 4, 2004 99,450 and counting. RButler you are slacking. JanetM CPA, MBA
GBurns Posted October 7, 2004 Posted October 7, 2004 My calculations show that the date will be George D. Burns Cost Reduction Strategies Burns and Associates, Inc www.costreductionstrategies.com(under construction) www.employeebenefitsstrategies.com(under construction)
david rigby Posted October 7, 2004 Posted October 7, 2004 Stop it! I'm a retirement actuary. Nothing about my comments is intended or should be construed as investment, tax, legal or accounting advice. Occasionally, but not all the time, it might be reasonable to interpret my comments as actuarial or consulting advice.
WDIK Posted October 8, 2004 Posted October 8, 2004 Friday October 8th, unless R. Butler implements his scheme. ....that is to say within 200 posts or so. ...but then again, What Do I Know?
jevd Posted October 8, 2004 Posted October 8, 2004 avg is 87 per business day since 9/30. 210 to go = 2.4 days = sometime Wed Morn 10/13 JEVD Making the complex understandable.
pmacduff Posted October 11, 2004 Posted October 11, 2004 82 to go...jevd looks close, but I'm betting on tomorrow, not Wednesday....
WDIK Posted October 11, 2004 Posted October 11, 2004 jevd looks close jevd sure went out on a limb preditcting 2.4 days in advance. ...but then again, What Do I Know?
jevd Posted October 11, 2004 Posted October 11, 2004 Being a non-actuary & the fact that it is so close, I won't change my guess even though the avg / day is predicting tomorrow. And I'm adding to the #s. Good luck to all guessers. JEVD Making the complex understandable.
Lame Duck Posted October 11, 2004 Posted October 11, 2004 We have a good idea when, but who is the real question. Any guesses on who that lucky 100,000 poster will be? I still say Blinky.
stephen Posted October 12, 2004 Posted October 12, 2004 or Pax- it will happen today as there are only about 12 posts to go...
Lame Duck Posted October 12, 2004 Posted October 12, 2004 And the winner is Mary C. ! I could have taken it, but I shun the glory.
jevd Posted October 12, 2004 Posted October 12, 2004 Any long term guesses on the next 100 (k) Actuaries start your engines. JEVD Making the complex understandable.
jevd Posted October 13, 2004 Posted October 13, 2004 ok I'll give it a non-actuarial shot. 100,000/82.65 (current Average) = 1210 adjusted for weekends & Holidays = Monday January 29, 2007. give or take a 5 day margin of error. JEVD Making the complex understandable.
Archimage Posted October 14, 2004 Posted October 14, 2004 Shouldn't your calculation assume a certain rate of growth of messages per day?
jevd Posted October 14, 2004 Posted October 14, 2004 built in margin of error and as stated before Not an actuary. You know what Mark Twain said about statistics. "There are Lies, Damn Lies & Statistics." JEVD Making the complex understandable.
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now