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COVID-19: the "New Normal" and Its Implications for Actuarial Modeling

Club Vita

May 19, 2020
Recorded Online

Whilst the grim advance of the COVID-19 pandemic has continued since our webinar on April 15, 2020, the likely changes to our future world have also started to come into focus. The benefits of the unprecedented social distancing measures are starting to be seen in lower infections and falling deaths in many countries, but a depressingly long tail looks likely.  

In our two previous webinars, our healthcare experts have been counselling that the future may look quite different to the past. Over the last month or so, we have heard much talk of a “new normal”.  The shock to our systems may cause both healthier and less healthy behaviors to emerge. Some effects, like the hangover from the disruption to the healthcare systems, may be temporary, others enduring.

Assumptions about future survival rates have a material impact on the reserving and pricing of pensions and life insurance. How should these potential changes feature in the modelling and assumption-setting of actuaries?  And how can we help the continuation of an orderly risk transfer market, with cedants and risk takers still holding overlapping views of the future?  

We’re delighted that a panel of experts have risen to the challenge of actuarial futurology.


  • Steven Baxter, Head of Innovation and Development, Club Vita
  • Eli Greenblum, Senior VP and Chief Actuary, Segal
  • Rebecca Hann, Longevity Risk Management Actuary, Legal & General
  • Dan Ryan, Founder and Chief Science Officer, COIOS Research

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