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Institutional Investor Expectations, Manager Performance, and Fund Flows
Howard Jones and Jose Vicente Martinez, via SSRN 
Feb. 26, 2015
"[The authors] analyze institutional investors' expectations about the future performance of fund managers and the impact of those expectations on asset allocation decisions. [They] find that institutional investors allocate funds mainly on the basis of fund managers' past performance and of investment consultants' recommendations, but not because they extrapolate their expectations from these."
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