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The Paradox of Prudence
Morningstar; free registration may be required Link to more items from this source
July 23, 2013

"Although markets and existing target-date series lack the history necessary to judge a glide path's outcome, Monte Carlo analysis can simulate thousands of possible allocations that a glide path could take and calculate the probability of success (and failure) for investors. These models require many assumptions and inputs, so it is nearly impossible to compare one provider's output with another's[.]"

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