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Federal Spending on the Government's Major Health Care Programs Is Projected to Rise Substantially Relative to GDP
Congressional Budget Office [CBO] Link to more items from this source
Sept. 18, 2013
"Under CBO's extended baseline ... net federal spending for those programs (that is, spending net of offsetting receipts for Medicare) would grow from an estimated 4.6 percent of GDP in fiscal year 2013 to 8.0 percent in 2038; in that year, 4.9 percent of GDP would be devoted to net spending on Medicare and 3.2 percent would be spent on Medicaid, CHIP, and the exchange subsidies. Beyond 2038, CBO projects, federal health care spending would continue to climb relative to GDP but at a slower rate than has been sustained historically."

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