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What to Expect for 2015 ACA Premiums: An Actuary Opens the Black Box (PDF)
National Institute for Health Care Management Link to more items from this source
May 15, 2014
"The outlook for 2015 premiums is still very cloudy at this point. In all markets, important factors such as trend, lower transitional reinsurance payments and industry fees point to higher premiums. Conversely, the single risk pool and the expected influx of brand-new consumers with fewer immediate health needs should help to mitigate premium increases. For many other factors, considerable uncertainty remains about how things will play out. Importantly, there will be significant variation across states based on the degree to which they allowed insurers to extend non-ACA compliant policies beyond 2013."

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