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Valuation-Based Tactical Asset Allocation in Retirement and the Impact of Market Valuation on Declining and Rising Equity Glidepaths
Michael Kitces in Nerd's Eye View Link to more items from this source
Sept. 17, 2014
"[T]he best approach may not be to implement a rising equity glidepath or a static rebalanced portfolio at all, but instead to adjust equity exposure dynamically based on market valuation from year to year throughout retirement. While such an approach is not necessarily a very effective short-term market timing indicator, the results suggest nonetheless that it can help to minimize risk when necessary, take advantage of favorable market returns when available, and have some of the best of both worlds -- albeit with the caveat that markets can still deviate materially in the short run from what valuation alone may imply regarding long-term returns!"

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