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The CBO's Crystal Ball: How Well Did It Forecast the Effects of the ACA?
The Commonwealth FundLink to more items from this source
Dec. 24, 2015

"CBO overestimated marketplace enrollment by 30 percent and marketplace costs by 28 percent, while it underestimated Medicaid enrollment by about 14 percent. Nonetheless, the CBO's projections were closer to realized experience than were those of many other prominent forecasters. Moreover, had the CBO correctly anticipated income levels and health care prices in 2014, its estimate of marketplace enrollment would have been within 18 percent of actual experience."

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