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Getzen Model of Long-Run Medical Cost Trends Update for Years 2020 to 2029+ (PDF)
Society of Actuaries Link to more items from this source
Oct. 18, 2019

11 pages. "The small increase in inflation and decline in technology factor offset each other, leaving the estimated nominal medical cost trend increases for 2029 and beyond at 5.2%, the same as in last year's update.... In addition to shifting local market conditions, actuaries should also consider additional national forces such as the continued cost shifting that has routinely caused private health insurance premiums to rise 1%-2% faster than average medical costs, a surge in pharmaceutical pricing and of course the impact of contemplated changes in state and federal legislation."

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