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The 2021 OASDI Trustees Report
U.S. Social Security Administration [SSA]Link to more items from this source
Sept. 1, 2021

"Employment, earnings, interest rates, and GDP dropped substantially in the second calendar quarter of 2020 and are assumed to rise gradually thereafter toward recovery by 2023, with the level of worker productivity and thus GDP assumed to be permanently lowered by 1 percent. In addition, the pandemic and recession are assumed to lead to elevated mortality rates over the period 2020 through 2023 and delays in births and immigration in the near term. Taken together, these data and assumptions cause the reserve depletion date for the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds under the intermediate assumptions to change from 2035, shown in the 2020 report, to 2034 for this report. These changes also result in a small but significant reduction in the actuarial balance for the OASDI program."

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