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Getzen Model of Long-Run Medical Cost Trends Update for 2022-2030+
Society of ActuariesLink to more items from this source
Dec. 1, 2021

"COVID has washed over healthcare like a tsunami. According to Medicare actuaries, trends have been turned upside down in 2021, but will reverse back in 2023 as medical costs rebound. It is more prudent to base projections on long run trends for a period after the storm, extrapolating from 2026 forward, leaving the intervening turbulence (years 2022–2025) mostly unspecified."

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