The Participant did not exceed the 415 dollar limit, he exceeded the 415 100% of pay limit. Given the serious nature of the examples of egregious failures, I doubt a failure caused by an incorrect estimate of compensation would cause this to be considered egregious.
There may still be a problem with eligibility for SCP. Rev. Proc. 2013-12 added a clarification to Section 4.04.
To me, it isn't clear cut whether SCP would apply. I would present the options and let the client decide between SCP and VCP.