Projections for rising costs

[Guest caseylaw]

I have obtained a large amount of survey data from organizations on rising health care costs. We are a small TPA for partially self funded medical plans that use PPO networks and more clients are asking about rising costs. The average prediction for 2002 seems to be 13% - 15% however the majority of our clients medical claims costs seem to be above that from 2001. We incorporate UCR, out-of-network claims re-pricing and use the best PPO networks available. While we have illustrated potential savings with benefit design changes such as higher co-pays, deductibles, and coinsurance and increasing payroll deductions, costs continue to escalate and reinsurance carriers are requiring higher specific deductibles and more lasering. We are thinking about incoporating a disease management program but again these are not necessarily going to decrease the costs. Does anyone have any suggestions on how to explain to employers when their is no particular reason that their costs are higher than the average predictions? Most of these surveys also don't indicate if they are premium costs or claims costs or a combination. Any guidance is appreciated.