PPA Mortality Tables at High Ages

[emmetttrudy]

I was just looking at the PPA mortality tables IRS Notice 2008-85 2013 table Unisex 417(e). From Age 115-119 it is 40%...Does this mean that a person who lives to age 114 has a 60% chance of living to 115? Or does it mean a person has a 60% chance of living to age 115 period (which obviously doesnt make much sense at all).

[Andy the Actuary]

I was just looking at the PPA mortality tables IRS Notice 2008-85 2013 table Unisex 417(e). From Age 115-119 it is 40%...Does this mean that a person who lives to age 114 has a 60% chance of living to 115? Or does it mean a person has a 60% chance of living to age 115 period (which obviously doesnt make much sense at all).

Person age 114 has a 60% chance of living to age 115. I would love to have a 60% chance of living to age 115 but am not really sure how I could afford it. As it is, I'm questioning whether I'll be able to stay dead very long. By the way, I would conjecture that this 60% probability is more of a place filling number than a number that has any real basis. I also would conjecture that in 50 years, a more meaningful probability will be developed.

[david rigby]

As I recall, in the development of a standard table a few years ago, the committee designing the table recommended a rate that never went to 1.0. I think they settled on 0.4 or 0.5 for all years after a certain age (perhaps 110 or 115).

It may have been the RP-2000 table, which can be found on the Society of Actuaries website, http://www.soa.org, which was the basis (I think) for the creation of the tables in the IRS Notice.