Birth rate probabilities

[Guest]

I know this may not be the correct board for this, but I was trying to target the board most actuaries hit.

Does anyone know where to find information on birth rates or probabilities by age of mother and father? I have found the National Vital Statistics web site to be helpful, but it's not exactly what I need.

What I'm trying to do is determine the probability that an individual has a child within x years. Similar to a mortality table.

For example, what is the probability that a female age 6, has a child in the next 10 years?

[Guest]

Try the Society of actuaries website:www.soa.org

[Guest]

Thanks for the reply. We tried it and didn't find anything. We even called their research department, who couldn't help us either.

[Guest]

What about the federal government? The DOL,Bureau of Labor Statistics,etc.?

[Guest]

I believe the National Vital Statistics may be a branch of the Gov. since when you look for census data you eventually get linked back to them. They have good data, but the problem was it was all in 5 age year bands and we need something more specific.

[Larry M]

why don't you use the five year age brackets and develop annual rates using the graduation techniques we were all taught and which most of us have forgotten?

As an alternate, contact NVS and ask if it can release the basic data.