IRS 417(e) Mortality Table 2022

Hello - just wondering if anyone has any insight on whether the 2022 IRS 417(e) Mortality Table (used, among other things, for determining minimum lump sum amounts) is expected to be impacted by the significant decline in life expectancies during 2020 due  covid 19? 

Or is there some longer lag time between when this hit to life expectancies will start to appear in these IRS mortality tables? 

Thanks in advance for any thoughts/input on this. 

https://www.irs.gov/irb/2020-51_IRB#NOT-2020-85

2022 mortality table for 417(e) was released in 2020, so "no", it won't show any impact for COVID.

Long term, that is still being studied.  You might find this piece helpful.   https://www.clubvita.us/assets/images/general/clubvita_US_scenariospaper_covid19_f2_01.pdf

There are also pieces published by the CCA and the Academy.  Should be able to find them with a Google search.

Effen - really appreciate your response!  I was not aware that the 2022 table was already published!  Thank you!

And also thank you for the link to the long term study/scenario paper - very interesting!

Cheers.

I doubt there will be much, if any, a long term impact on the tables.  Those who died are already dead and have no impact on future mortality.

CCA also sponsored a webinar in September 2020 on COVID and Retirement Plans. One slide estimated a 25% increase in 2020 mortality (deaths) but then estimated the surviving population would experience 25% lower future mortality as a result of improved health behaviors - survival of the fittest in a sense. However, as we know, this is all unevenly distributed across geography, race, socio-economics and unfortunately with vaccines, politically, so how it truly impacts future mortality for the country and retirement plans in total remains to be seen.

Another slide had the following, indicating any COVID impact on lump sum rates would be realized until 2024:

Mortality Improvement Scales
•MP-2020 scale will include population mortality data through 2018
•COVID experience would first affect scales in 2022
•According to recent process, scales developed in 2022 would affect 417(e) lump sums in 2024

Hope you found this both interesting and helpful.