Assuming calendar year plan, if it's late July and the 5500 hasn't been filed yet, there is no reason not to file a 5558 extension. With that done, if you're a day or two late from the October 15 deadline, the penalty counts days back to the July 31 deadline, so you're looking at a minimum of 77 days late, or a $19,250 penalty.
The penalty increase was put in the bill as a "revenue raiser" to offset the loss of tax income from other things they wanted to do, like allow retroactive plan adoption and increase the RMD age.