projected limits for 2019

[Tom Poje]

Based on the CPI value released today (and using the values for Mar-Apr-May)

the rounded/actual limit at the moment should be:

catch up
6,000	6,364

 

deferral		comp
19,000	19,092	280,000	281,900

 

415		db limit
56,000	56,380	225,000	225,520

 

key		hce
180,000	183,235	125,000	127,376

[Mike Preston]

Now that the June CPI has been published, you can take the above amounts to the bank, barring some very strange CPI changes in the next 3 months.

[Bird]

21 hours ago, Mike Preston said:

Now that the June CPI has been published, you can take the above amounts to the bank, barring some very strange CPI changes in the next 3 months.

I'm going to the bank this afternoon and will let you know what I get for them.

[Mike Preston]

Based on the numbers posted today, Tom's projections are still bankable.  If inflation is about 5% per annum for the next two months there is a chance that the Key employee threshold will get to the next level ($185,000).  Everything else seems locked in, but time will tell.

[XTitan]

Hmm.  I'm getting if inflation is about 3.2% for the next two months that the 415 limit goes to 57,000 and 401(a)(17) goes to 285,000, in addition to 416(i) going to 185,000.

[Tom Poje]

July's rate was 252.006

if Aug and Sept are 254.000 and 254.000 then I would get the limits increasing, but that would be quite a jump

assuming I have things plugged correctly

indexed limits and soc sec.xlsx

[XTitan]

Well, my calcs match yours, which only says something about consistency, not accuracy.  It's "only" 3.2% on average, and given last month was 2.9% over last year, it's not that big a leap.

[Mike Preston]

1 hour ago, XTitan said:

Well, my calcs match yours, which only says something about consistency, not accuracy.  It's "only" 3.2% on average, and given last month was 2.9% over last year, it's not that big a leap.

My numbers match Tom, too. But not yours.  The relevant increase is, as Tom points out, Aug and Sep over Jul, not Aug over Aug or Sep over Sep.  In any event I can see, but just barely, an increase which ups the key employee threshold, but not anything else.  Time will tell.

[Tom Poje]

Aug figure just released 252.146

next release is Oct 11, but barring a complete collapse or a tremendous increase the numbers are locked in what they have been since the original post in June

[XTitan]

The CPI confirms the limits Tom posted way back in June.  Now just need the IRS to make it official.

Social Security Wage Base is confirmed at 132,900.

[Tom Poje]

here is the spreadsheet (and a spreadsheet for covered comp values if anyone still uses those values). spreadsheet also contains a table for estimating soc sec if you plug in your historical comp. at least I come close to matching my own results on that when I plug my actual comps, but who knows if I really have that all set up properly.

plugged in the latest national wage average released and the generates the 132,900 value for the taxable wage base as well

plugged the cpi-w values and that generates the 2.8% COLA increase. nice to know that I somehow managed to create a spreadsheet that calculates values that match the govt for taxable wage base and COLA! guess even a blind pig can find an acorn

Since 1975, Social Security's general benefit increases have been based on increases in the cost of living, as measured by the Consumer Price Index. We call such increases Cost-Of-Living Adjustments, or COLAs. We determined a 2.8-percent COLA on October 11, 2018. We will announce the next COLA in October 2019.

indexed limits and soc sec.xlsx

covered comp at 132900.xls

[Carol V. Calhoun]

Thanks, Tom!  Your charts this time of year are always so helpful.

And the Social Security Administration just confirmed your estimate of the wage base.

[Carol V. Calhoun]

Has anyone heard anything about when the formal IRS notice might come out?  They used to happen the same day the Social Security notice came out, but that hasn't happened the past couple of years.  But it seems to be awfully late this year.

[XTitan]

Last year, the release was the Friday of the week following the CPI announcement, so I was hoping it would be last Friday at the latest.  It hasn't been this late since the year the CPI dropped back in 2009 and the delay was attributed to the IRS determining whether the limits should remain flat or decrease.  Sigh.

[Tom Poje]

ASPPA bought the IRS off so they could make the official announcement at their conference this week.

[Carol V. Calhoun]

On 10/22/2018 at 3:03 PM, Tom Poje said:

ASPPA bought the IRS off so they could make the official announcement at their conference this week.

Alas, apparently even the ASPPA conference couldn't get the IRS to disgorge the new limits!

[shERPA]

Maybe Tom should send IRS his spreadsheet? ?