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Modeling Lifetime Earnings Paths: Hypothetical versus Actual Workers (PDF)
Boettner Center for Pensions and Retirement Research 
May 19, 2004
39 pages; working paper by Andrew Au, Olivia S. Mitchell and John W. R. Phillips. Excerpt: To assess the distributional effects of social security reform proposals, it is essential to have good information on real-world workers' lifetime earnings trajectories.... We show that the hypothetical profiles do not track earnings patterns of current retirees ... Therefore, using hypothetical profiles could misrepresent benefits paid and taxes collected under such reforms.
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