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Investment Return Volatility and the Los Angeles Fire and Police Pension Plan (PDF)
Rockefeller Institute of Government 
Feb. 23, 2017
51 pages. "[This report examines] the potential implications of investment return volatility for the Los Angeles Fire and Police Pension Plan (LAFPP) ... one of five plans [selected] to analyze in detail.... [If] LAFPP's investment-return assumption is approximately correct over the long run, the plan has very little risk of becoming severely underfunded in the next thirty years, even if investment returns vary significantly from year to year.... Under plausible alternative investment-return assumptions, the risks of severe underfunding remain small but the city's contribution risks are greater."
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