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The Effects of Two Specified Policy Options for Health Care on the Federal Budget Deficit (PDF)
U.S. Congressional Budget Office [CBO]
Sept. 22, 2009
4 page Letter to Ranking Member, House Committee on the Budget. Excerpt: This letter responds to questions you asked about how two policy options you presented would affect the budget deficit over the long term. One option would replace the current tax exclusion for premiums foremployment-based health insurance with a tax credit that would grow overtime at a rate less than that of health care inflation. The other option would convert Medicaid into a defined-contribution program with federal outlays increasing over time at a rate less than that of health care inflation. In the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO's) view, both options would reduce future budget deficits, relative to projections under current law, by amounts that increased over time. The analysis presented in this letter covers only the two general policy concepts described here and does not represent an analysis of any particular legislation.
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