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CBO's Long-Term Projections for Medicare and Medicaid Spending in the United States
Congressional Budget Office [CBO] 
Dec. 3, 2012
"If current laws remained in place, spending on the major federal health care programs would grow from more than 5 percent of GDP today to almost 10 percent in 2037 and would continue to increase thereafter. The aging of the population and the rising cost of health care would cause spending on the major health care programs and Social Security to grow from more than 10 percent of GDP today to almost 16 percent of GDP 25 years from now. By comparison, spending on all of the federal government's programs and activities ... has averaged 18.5 percent of GDP over the past 40 years." [Editor's note: The linked item is a set of 15 slides at a presentation to the "OECD Expert Workshop on Improving Health Expenditure Forecasting Methods."]
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