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Long Term Savings, Relying on Returns, and Retirement Date Risk
Michael Kitces in Nerd's Eye View 
[Opinion] Aug. 7, 2013
"How you save matters far less than the mere fact that you save in the early years. Making good investment decisions actually just doesn't have much material impact until someone has been compounding savings -- or at least accumulating contributions -- for a decade or more. On the other hand, the reality is that cash flows contribute to less than half the increase in the account balance by just year 10, and a fairly trivial amount overall for the entire second half of the savings time horizon."
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