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Accuracy of Mortality Projections in Social Security and Medicare Trustees Reports (PDF)
Office of the Chief Actuary, U.S. Social Security Administration [SSA]Link to more items from this source
May 12, 2015

Actuarial Note No. 156, 12 pages. "This note presents a brief analysis of projected 'period' life expectancy at age 65 from the 1982 through 2014 Trustees Reports.... Because near-term projections of mortality for Trustees Reports are largely extrapolations of past trend using specific formulas, it is not surprising that near-term projections have been least accurate when the most recently available data precedes a turning point in the trend rate of mortality.... The future will almost certainly include alternating periods of slow and fast mortality improvement as in the past. As a result, near-term mortality projections will always be uncertain."

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