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Text of SSA Chief Actuary's Memo: Potential Reallocation of the Payroll Tax Rate Between the Disability Insurance Program and the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Program (PDF)

"This letter presents our estimates of the effects on the OASI and DI Trust Funds of enacting the temporary reallocation of the payroll tax rate proposed in the President's Fiscal Year 2016 Budget. We estimate this reallocation will equalize the projected years of reserve depletion for the two trust funds to 2033.... The President's proposal would increase the total (employee plus employer) payroll tax rate for the DI Trust Fund by 0.9 percentage points, from 1.8 to 2.7 percent, for calendar years 2016 through 2020. The payroll tax rate for the OASI Trust Fund would be reduced by an equal amount so that the total OASDI payroll tax rate for these years would be unchanged."

Social Security Administration Actuarial Publications Update

The following annual recurring Actuarial Notes have been updated using the assumptions of the 2025 OASDI Trustees Report: Recurring Actuarial Note #1: Unfunded Obligation and Transition Costs for the OASDI Program Recurring Actuarial Note #2: Unisex Life Expectancies at Birth and Age 65 Recurring Actuarial Note #3: Scaled Factors for Hypothetical Earnings Examples Recurring Actuarial Note #8: Disaggregation of the Long-Range Actuarial Balance for the OASDI Program Since 1983 Recurring Actuarial Note #9: Replacement Rates for Hypothetical Retired Workers

Proposed Changes to Social Security for Public Employees: SSA Actuary Estimates Financial Effects (PDF)

"[This letter provides an] estimate of the financial effects on the Social Security Trust Funds of the amendment in the nature of a substitute ... for H.R. 711, the 'Equal Treatment of Public Servants Act of 2015' ... This amendment would generally replace the windfall elimination provision (WEP) with a new formula that you have referred to as the 'Public Servant Fairness Formula' (PSF). The proposal would also provide for a rebate payment starting in 2018 for individuals affected by the current WEP."

Social Security Cost Estimates for S. 3147, the Social Security Administration Fairness Act (PDF)

"[T]he proposal would make both Social Security monthly benefits and Medicare coverage available beginning with the first full month after the onset of disability.... [E]limination of these waiting periods ... would increase (worsen) the long-range OASDI actuarial deficit by 0.17 percent of taxable payroll, and would increase the annual deficit for the OASDI program by 0.19 percent of payroll for 2091."

Social Security Actuary Estimates Effect of Proposed Reduction of Payroll Tax Rate (PDF)

"The proposal would reduce the employee portion of the payroll tax rate from 6.2 to 4.2 percent on annual earnings below the applicable threshold; the employer portion would remain at 6.2 per cent. The tax rate for self-employed workers would be reduced from 12.4 to 10.4 percent on annual earnings below the applicable threshold.... [T]hat enactment of this proposal would increase the long-range OASDI actuarial deficit by about 0.77 percent of taxable payroll, from 2.66 percent of payroll under current law to 3.43 percent of payroll under the proposal."

Text of SSA Description of Fiscal Effects of the 1983 Change in Social Security's Normal Retirement Age (PDF)

"The total effect in current dollar cash flow on the OASDI Trust Funds is about $97 billion for 2000 through 2012 and an additional $451 billion for 2013 through 2023. In present value, the long-range effect of the NRA increase provision through 2087 is $4.7 trillion. The effect is projected to reach 0.5 percent of GDP by 2037, and to be 0.38 percent of GDP for the period 2000 to 2087 as a whole."

Analysis of Specific Changes Proposed for Modifying Social Security

"Listed [on this page] is a broad range of policy options that would address Trust Fund solvency and other issues related to Social Security benefits and financing.... For each provision ... [the Office of the Chief Actuary] provide[s] an estimate of the financial effect on the OASDI program over the long-range period (the next 75 years) and for the 75th year. In addition, [they] provide graphs and detailed single year tables. [They] base all estimates on the intermediate assumptions described in the 2014 Trustees Report."

Summary of Provisions That Would Change the Social Security Program (PDF)

36 pages; Sep. 29, 2025. "Following a brief description of each provision, [the authors] provide ... [1] the change in the 75-year long-range actuarial balance, [which] indicates the financial effect of the provision over the entire long-range (75-year) period.... [2] the change in the annual balance as of the 75th year, [which] gives an indication of the year-by-year expected gain or shortfall after the provision has been in place for a long period of time." [Detailed estimates for each category of change also available.]

Estimate of the Financial Effects of OBBBA on the Social Security Trust Funds (PDF)

"Over calendar years 2025 through 2034, the total net increase in OASDI program cost is estimated to be $168.6 billion. In addition, the timing of combined OASI and DI Trust Fund reserve depletion is accelerated from the third quarter of 2034 under the 2025 Trustees Report baseline to the first quarter of 2034 following implementation of the law."

Preserving and Enhancing Social Security for All (PDF)

15 presentation slides; Keynote address by the Chief Actuary to the 2023 Harkin Retirement Security Symposium.