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Uncertain Policy for an Uncertain World: The Case of Social Security (PDF)
U.S. Congressional Budget Office [CBO] 
Mar. 23, 2006
43 pages. Excerpt: This paper analyzes a state-dependent approach to policy in which future Social Security benefit formulas are tied to realized economic and demographic outcomes over time. The results, based on a microsimulation model with stochastic capabilities, show the extent to which it is possible to systematically address uncertainty about system finances and distributional outcomes.
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