"The safety of a 4% initial withdrawal strategy depends on asset return assumptions....Calibrating bond returns to the January 2013 real yields offered on 5-year TIPS, while maintaining the historical equity premium, causes the projected failure rate for retirement account withdrawals to jump to 57%.... [F]ailure rates if today's bond rates return to their historical average after either 5 or 10 years ... are much higher (18% and 32%, respectively for a 50% stock allocation) than many retirees may be willing to accept."

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