First of all, I'm not even "supposedly" knowledgable.
While the points you bring up with respect to determining actual fraud, cost in legal fees and whether or not recovery is even possible are pertinent, the main issue at point here is with respect to the restitution amount if there is a market downturn.
Setting aside the other points, if the plan were to pursue recovery, do you think that the recipient of the funds could reasonably argue that only the "adjusted market value" is recoverable?