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The Magnitude and Nature of Risk Selection in Employer-Sponsored Health Plans
Sean Nicholson, Kate Bundorf, Rebecca M. Stein, and Daniel Polsky via National Bureau of Economic Research [NBER] 
Sept. 4, 2003
Working paper. Excerpt: We find that people who switched from a non-HMO to an HMO plan used 11 percent fewer medical services in the period prior to switching than people who remained in the non-HMO plan, and that this relatively low use persists once they enroll in an HMO. Furthermore, people who switch from an HMO to a non-HMO plan used 18 percent more medical services in the period prior to switching than those who remained in an HMO plan.
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