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Background Paper: Quantifying Uncertainty in the Analysis of Long-Term Social Security Projections (PDF)
U.S. Congressional Budget Office [CBO] 
Nov. 17, 2005
48 pages. Excerpt: Analyses of the outlook for Social Security and proposed reforms should take into account the uncertainty in any forecast of Social Security's finances -- especially over the 75-year time frame often used .... This ... paper describes the methods used by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) to quantify uncertainty in Social Security projections. It updates the December 2001 CBO paper Uncertainty in Social Security's Long-Term Finances: A Stochastic Analysis.
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