"HealthCare.gov probably has about a month before the problems of the web site infect the product itself. The nightmare scenario looks something like this: The web site continues to be a mess through the fall. As such, only the people who need insurance most -- older, sicker people -- go through the trouble of signing up. Younger, healthier people come once or twice and then never again. The risk pools fill with more expensive applicants and, in year two, premiums spike."

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