News Archive

"The 2026 Trustees Report takes a major step towards offering a more realistic picture of Social Security's financial status. The advancement involves a long-overdue recognition that fertility will not rebound and that less immigration and the OBBBA will mean less revenue.... [T]he Trustees' 'offsetting' assumptions on productivity and mortality are unpersuasive and mask the full impact of the changes.... [T]he reforms required to fix Social Security are doable. All that is needed is the political will."  MORE >>

"[The authors] estimate that eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits would reduce the system's funded status from the Trustees' 2026 estimate of 75.6% to about 71%. It would also hasten the projected trust fund exhaustion date.... 71% is still an overstated figure because it is based on SSA assumptions (which still may be optimistic) and the flawed 75‑year projection period ... Social Security's funded status -- measured using a flawed and possibly optimistic long‑term metric -- remains in the 70%-75% range and is deteriorating each year due to Valuation Date Creep."  MORE >>

"While the reality check shows no evidence of 'runaway retirement benefits,' that finding does not mean that benefits are optimally designed. The U.S. has a wide range in earnings, and workers' earnings are strongly correlated with life expectancy. A situation where low earners die early and high earners live much longer undermines many of the progressive aspects of the benefit design. The challenge in putting together a solvency package for Social Security is to correct a structure that increasingly benefits higher earners."  MORE >>

273 pages. "Since last year's report, the Trustees ... have made changes to the intermediate assumptions in three primary areas. [1] Fertility ... [2] Immigration ... [3] Near-term economics ... In addition, [OBBBA] ... is projected to have a substantial effect on Social Security's financial status.... The OASI Trust Fund is projected to become depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032, one quarter earlier than projected in last year's report. Upon reserve depletion in 2032, projected income is sufficient to pay 78 percent of scheduled benefits. This percentage declines gradually to 62 percent by 2100." [Also available: [1] Tables Included in the Report; [2] Figures Included in the Report; [3] Supplemental Single-Year Tables]  MORE >>

"Social Security covers virtually all private sector employees and about 72% of public employees.... At the end of 2025, it was providing benefits to 70 million people In 2025, it paid out $1.60 trillion in benefits and expenses and received income of $1.45 trillion.... The year in which a worker attains age 62, dies, or becomes disabled is called the 'eligibility year.' Benefit computations are based on the benefit formula parameters in effect for the eligibility year."  MORE >>

"[T]he Chief Actuary of Social Security estimated that passage of the [OBBA] would increase the 2025 long-range actuarial deficit for the system to -3.98%. [The authors] expect the one-year Valuation Date Creep will once again be -.06% ... [and that] changes in assumptions and experience for 2025 [will] add another -10% to the deficit, about the same as in 2024.... This brings [the] estimate for the 2026 75-year long-range actuarial balance (deficit) to be -4.14%, or a funded status of about 76%."  MORE >>

"Forecasts for the 2027 Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) saw massive spikes as seniors feel the financial strain caused by rising gasoline prices, inflation, and increasing costs of goods and services. The Senior Citizens League’s (TSCL) latest report predicts a 3.9% jump, up 1.1 percentage point from this year’s COLA of 2.8%. According to the organization, the average benefits check for retired workers would increase by $81.17, from $2,081.16 to $2,162.33."  MORE >>

"Based on the latest CPI data ... TSCL predicts that Social Security's 2027 Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) will be 2.8%, the same as the 2026 COLA of 2.8%.... Meanwhile, as Social Security faces a potential benefits cuts of around 24% in 2032 ... a new proposal would address the problem by capping payments to beneficiaries at $50,000 per person, or $100,000 per couple.... [T]he policy would close about three fifths of the program's projected shortfall over the next 75 years."  MORE >>

"Most older Americans want Congress to 'save Social Security (and Medicare).' Many of those individuals believe (hope) that Congress will not reduce their benefits, but will, instead, save the system through increased revenue, from some source that will presumably not negatively affect them. And maybe this will be what happens, or maybe not. It is arguably more prudent and conservative to assume some level of benefit cuts will occur than to assume none."  MORE >>

"[T]he RET is a vehicle to reduce Social Security benefits somewhat if an individual is earning wages at a job while receiving benefits from the system. It's graduated somewhat, based on how much that person is earning and whether he or she is doing so before attaining full retirement age (FRA) or after. But does the RET touch more than the individuals on whom it is applied? The short answer is yes[.]"  MORE >>

"[A] new survey of investors nearing, or in, retirement ... finds people are more concerned about their future; and they cite the prospects of Social Security cuts and high inflation as most harmful.... [S]ome plan to delay retirement and shift to more conservative investments. Since hedging risks comes at a cost, the greater uncertainty of today's policy environment clearly hurts older Americans."  MORE >>

"Australia’s Superannuation model, while structurally more sustainable due to its asset-backed design, exposes participants to investment, market, and economic-cycle risks that are largely absent from traditional defined-benefit social insurance systems. Any serious consideration of transitioning the United States from a pay-as-you-go model toward a Superannuation-style system must therefore address significant challenges related to transition financing, sequencing, risk allocation, and intergenerational equity."  MORE >>

"Australia's system is highly ranked in international comparisons -- receiving a grade of B+ and the U.S. only a C+. The U.S. receives low grades mainly because Social Security is not adequately financed and many workers have no workplace retirement program. To improve our grade, we must fix Social Security and give all workers access to supplementary plans. Good as it is, Australia can't help us."  MORE >>

"[W]orking while receiving Social Security can come with a significant tax drag. If you claim before your full retirement age (currently 67), Social Security benefits are subject to the “earnings test,” a formula that temporarily withholds a portion of benefits if your wage income exceeds certain levels. You may also need to pay taxes on Social Security benefits or surcharges on Medicare premiums, or simply be pushed into higher income tax brackets."  MORE >>

Updated Feb. 5, 2026. "[F]our tables show estimated future benefits consistent with earnings in 2024 and age in 2025. Each table lists earnings in 2024 at various ages and annual benefit amounts at entitlement for example workers with full-lifetime average earnings levels of $20,000, $40,000, $60,000, $80,000, $100,000, $120,000, and the taxable maximum.... [T]he benefit amounts assume no increase in price levels or in average wage levels after 2024."  MORE >>

"[T]he Part B premium will rise from $185 in 2025 to $202.90 per month in 2026.... Part B premiums as a share of annual Social Security benefits -- defined as the benefit for the retired workers with average pre-retirement earnings -- will reach an all-time high of 9.4 percent."  MORE >>

"[These numbers] relate to compensation from work: paycheck withholding, the potential need for estimated taxes, and your retirement savings. [1] The Social Security wage base ... [2] Your income-tax bracket and withholding ... [3] Your contribution limit for qualified retirement plans ... While not all employees have them, health savings accounts (HSAs) are also getting an increase in their pre-tax contribution limits for 2026 in response to inflation."  MORE >>

"The Social Security Administration is rolling out nationwide systems in the coming months that will impact how the agency schedules appointments for initial claims and triages its workload to employees.... Employees are wary that these changes will introduce more complexity to their workloads, as well as a higher risk of overpayments that SSA would have to claw back."  MORE >>

"The main critique of the Social Security program ... is that it operates on a pay-as-you-go basis, which makes it very vulnerable to demographic shifts.... The appeal of the Australian system to organizations ranking national retirement systems is that the main plan is fully funded and protected from demographic shifts, and the Age Pension ensures that no one falls below any adequate standard of living."  MORE >>

"Social Security faces long-term financing challenges that require action.... Recent proposals ... call for drastic changes, shifting the Social Security program from focusing on wage replacement to poverty alleviation. While reducing the federal budget deficits, these plans face strong political opposition and require long, phased implementation. Properly measured, elderly poverty is only about 6%, making such drastic changes unnecessary for a successful, popular program.... [S]olvency and poverty reduction can be achieved through modest, bipartisan tax and benefit adjustments plus targeted safety net improvements."  MORE >>

"[The authors] draw on New Zealand as an example for a more predictable government retirement design that provides a flat, universal benefit to alleviate poverty in old age, while empowering Kiwis to save for their own financial security. Rather than treating Social Security's financing gap as a narrow revenue problem, [they ask] more fundamental questions about the program's purpose, its distributional design, and the political incentives that shape reform proposals."  MORE >>

"43 percent of individuals interviewed between ages 56-75 combined work and benefits for at least some period of time ... [T]wo-thirds of them claimed before the FRA -- typically right at age 62 -- while another 30 percent claimed between the FRA and age 69 -- typically right at the FRA. This pattern suggests different circumstances and different reasons for claiming."  MORE >>

"International experience suggests that fiscal crises often serve as catalysts for politically difficult but necessary retirement program reforms. Across advanced economies, rising debt burdens and economic shocks have forced governments to confront unsustainable retirement programs, often prompting benefit restraint and the adoption of automatic stabilizers to limit the need for future political intervention. The lessons from these international reforms are especially relevant for the United States, as Social Security's finances deteriorate and the costs of delay continue to mount."  MORE >>

"The trustees made changes to the intermediate assumptions in two primary areas: [1] Given the low level of the total fertility rate (TFR) in recent years, the trustees revised the year the ultimate TFR of 1.9 children per woman is reached from 2040, as stated in the 2024 Trustees Report, to 2050.... [2] The trustees reduced the assumed ratio of total labor compensation to Gross Domestic Product (GDP), also known as the labor share of output."  MORE >>

"Using the 75-year projection period understates the system's financial status if system revenues are expected to exceed system expenditures in years after the 75-year projection period. Because this was the approach used in 1983, the system benefits paid during last 42 years have been higher than actuarially supportable levels, system revenues should have been increased to support these benefits or some combination of lower benefits and higher revenues should have been adopted. It looks like future generations of beneficiaries and taxpayers will likely pay for this mistake."  MORE >>